The Ministry of Economy and Industry has published for discussion a draft Concept for the socio-economic development of Uzbekistan until 2030.
The document analyses the potential risks and threats that adversely affect the sustainable development of the economy, and defines the goals, priorities and objectives of socio-economic development of the country for the medium-term in 2019−2025 and long-term until 2030.
Seven priority areas of socio-economic development are identified, aimed at increasing the inclusiveness of economic growth and the transition of Uzbekistan to the number of high-income countries:
1) Institutional changes and ensuring macroeconomic stability;
2) Development of the real sector of the economy;
3) Human capital development;
4) Development of innovation;
5) Development of engineering communications and production infrastructure;
6) Improving the investment and business environment;
7) Balanced socio-economic development of the regions.
Today the potential for the extensive development of the country's economy, namely the unfocused and universal modernisation of the real sector, significant investments in expanding mining, accelerated development of small businesses, migrant labour transfers and other similar factors have exhausted their influence on maintaining economic growth.
The developed concept takes into account global economic development trends, measures to smooth out the impact on the country's economy of negative external factors, demographic trends and tension in the labour market, the need to increase the production potential of the territories, ensure employment growth and improve living conditions of the population.
The main objective of the concept is defined as the formation of an export-oriented market economy based on knowledge, ensuring a high level and high quality of life for every citizen of the republic with inclusive and sustainable economic growth.
According to the forecasts given in the concept, real GDP growth should be by 2.1 times from $50.505 billion in 2018 to $176.78 billion, and per capita GDP in foreign currency by 3 times from 1,533 to 4,538 dollar. To achieve these goals, it is necessary to maintain an average annual economic growth rate of at least 6.4%. The average annual inflation rate should be 4.4% in 2030 against 17.5% in 2018 and the expected 14.9% in 2020.
The achieved value of GDP per capita by 2030 will allow Uzbekistan to enter the group of countries with incomes above the average, reduce the level of tension in the labour market, ensure income growth and reduce poverty by 2 times, increase life expectancy to 78−80 years, reduce mortality by 1.5 times, as well as full satisfaction of the population's need for housing, high-quality drinking water and electricity at 100%.
The factors of GDP growth in 2018–2030 should be ensuring the growth of real industry volumes by 2.3 times with an increase in the share in GDP from 26.3% to 33.3%, construction work by 2.1 times from 5.7 % to 6.4%, and the service sector by 2.1 times from 35.6% to 39.3%, and, accordingly, a 1.8% decrease in the share of agriculture from 32.4% to 21%.
The growth of the production potential of the economy should ensure an increase in exports by 3 times. To ensure economic growth, it will be necessary to increase the volume of capital investments 3.1 times and foreign direct investment by 7 times.
The country's resident population is expected to grow from 33.254 million in 2018 to 38.957 million. Currently, the country's labour resources make up about 56.7% of the total population. About 200–250 thousand people enter the labour market annually.
The age structure of the population allows to create a labour potential characterised by high labour activity and great mobility. The number of people leaving for work outside the country in 2030 is planned to be reduced from the current 15.6% of the economically active population to 11.1%.
Reported by Gazeta (Uzbekistan).